Intestinal Research

Original Articles

IBD

Defining management strategies for acute severe ulcerative colitis using predictive models: a simulation-modeling study: Danny Con, Peter De Cruz; Intest Res 2024;22(4):439-452. Published online May 7, 2024; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5217/ir.2023.00175

Background/Aims
Robust management algorithms are required to reduce the residual risk of colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) refractory to standard infliximab salvage therapy. The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance and benefits of alternative ASUC management strategies using simulated prediction models of varying accuracy.
Methods
This was a simulation-based modeling study using a hypothetical cohort of 5,000 steroid-refractory ASUC patients receiving standard infliximab induction. Simulated predictive models were used to risk-stratify patients and escalate treatment in patients at high risk of failing standard infliximab induction. The main outcome of interest was colectomy by 3 months.
Results
The 3-month colectomy rate in the base scenario where all 5,000 patients received standard infliximab induction was 23%. The best-performing management strategy assigned high-risk patients to sequential Janus kinase inhibitor inhibition and mediumrisk patients to accelerated infliximab induction. Using a 90% area under the curve (AUC) prediction model and optimistic treatment efficacy assumptions, this strategy reduced the 3-month colectomy rate to 8% (65% residual risk reduction). Using an 80% AUC prediction model with only modest treatment efficacy assumptions, the 3-month colectomy rate was reduced to 15% (35% residual risk reduction). Overall management strategy efficacy was highly dependent on predictive model accuracy and underlying treatment efficacy assumptions.
Conclusions
This is the first study to simulate predictive model-based management strategies in steroid-refractory ASUC and evaluate their effect on short-term colectomy rates. Future studies on predictive model development should incorporate simulation studies to better understand their expected benefit.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Medical management of acute severe ulcerative colitis in the hospitalized patient
Loren G Rabinowitz, Ajay Gade, Joseph D. Feuerstein
Expert Review of Gastroenterology & Hepatology.2025; 19(5): 467. CrossRef
Three Janus kinase inhibitors in ulcerative colitis: is upadacitinib taking the lead?
Yoon Suk Jung
Intestinal Research.2025; 23(4): 394. CrossRef

6,717 View
221 Download
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2 Crossref

IBD

Assessing quality of magnetic resonance enterography and its impact on disease assessment of ileal Crohn’s disease: Anuj Bohra, Declan J Connoley, Danny Con, Jonathan P Segal, Olga Niewiadomski, Abhinav Vasudevan, Daniel R Van Langenberg, Numan Kutaiba; Intest Res 2024;22(2):152-161. Published online January 5, 2024; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5217/ir.2023.00095

Abstract PDF Supplementary Material PubReader ePub

Background/Aims
Assessment of quality of magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) in small bowel Crohn’s disease (CD) activity evaluation has received little attention. We assessed the impact of bowel distention and motion artifact on MRE activity indices in ileal CD.
Methods
A cohort of patients who underwent contemporaneous MRE and colonoscopy for ileal CD assessment between 2014 and 2021 at 2 centers were audited. An abdominal radiologist blinded to clinical data reviewed each MRE, graded bowel distention and motion artifact upon a pre-specified 3-point scale and calculated the original magnetic resonance index of activity (MaRIA) and simplified MaRIA (sMaRIA), London index and CD MRE index (CDMI). Ileal endoscopic activity was graded via the Simplified Endoscopy Score for CD (SES-CD). The performance of MRE indices in discriminating active disease (SES-CD ≥3) stratified by MRE quality was measured by receiver operator characteristic analyses.
Results
One hundred and thirty-seven patients had MRE and colonoscopy within a median of 16 days (range, 0–30 days) with 63 (46%) exhibiting active disease (SES-CD ≥3). Forty-four MREs (32%) were deemed low quality due to motion artifact and/or moderate to poor distention. Low-quality MREs demonstrated reduced discriminative performance between ileal SES-CD ≥3 and MRE indices (MaRIA 0.838 vs. 0.634, sMaRIA 0.834 vs. 0.527, CDMI 0.850 vs. 0.595, London 0.748 vs. 0.511, P<0.05 for all). Individually the presence of any motion artifact markedly impacted the discriminative performance (e.g., sMaRIA area under the curve 0.544 vs. 0.814, P<0.05).
Conclusions
Image quality parameters can significantly impact MRE disease activity interpretation. Quality metrics should be reported, enabling cautious interpretation in lower-quality studies.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Motion Mitigation Techniques for Abdominal and Cardiac MR Imaging
Eric M. Schrauben, Gastao Lima da Cruz, Christopher W. Roy, Thomas Küstner
Journal of Magnetic Resonance Imaging.2026; 63(4): 917. CrossRef
Temporal AI-assisted compressed sensing for high-resolution, motion-robust small-bowel MR enterography without antiperistaltic agents: a feasibility study
Ziman Xiong, Yufan Wang, Liya Ma, Xiaopeng Song, Wei Mao, Zhen Li, Yaqi Shen
European Radiology.2026;[Epub] CrossRef
Evaluating luminal and post-operative Crohn’s disease activity on magnetic resonance enterography: A review of radiological disease activity scores
Richard W Lo, Gauraang Bhatnagar, Numan Kutaiba, Ashish R Srinivasan
World Journal of Gastroenterology.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Magnetic resonance enterography in diagnosing and monitoring of adult-onset IgA vasculitis (Henoch-Schönlein purpura) with gastro-intestinal involvement: Report of two cases
Edoardo Conticini, Susanna Guerrini, Paolo Falsetti, Maria Antonietta Mazzei, Luca Cantarini, Bruno Frediani
The Egyptian Rheumatologist.2024; 46(2): 90. CrossRef
Advocating for Consensus: The Crucial Role of Standardised Magnetic Resonance Imaging Protocols and Image Quality Metrics in Assessment of Crohn’s Disease
Mustafa Mohamedrashed, Mayur Garg, Anuj Bohra
Journal of Crohn's and Colitis.2024; 18(9): 1524. CrossRef
Achieving high-quality magnetic resonance enterography is critical for assessing Crohn’s disease activity
Kyoung Doo Song
Intestinal Research.2024; 22(2): 117. CrossRef
Bowel preparation after mid-gut tubing enhanced the efficacy and compliance of magnetic resonance enterography in Crohn’s disease: a randomized controlled trial
Yun Wang, Min Dai, Minghui Zheng, Yan Jin, Quan Wen, Bota Cui, Zulun Zhang, Jianguo Zhu, Faming Zhang
Therapeutic Advances in Gastroenterology.2024;[Epub] CrossRef

8,433 View
237 Download
7 Web of Science
7 Crossref

IBD

Biomarker dynamics during infliximab salvage for acute severe ulcerative colitis: C-reactive protein (CRP)-lymphocyte ratio and CRP-albumin ratio are useful in predicting colectomy: Danny Con, Bridgette Andrew, Steven Nicolaides, Daniel R van Langenberg, Abhinav Vasudevan; Intest Res 2022;20(1):101-113. Published online March 12, 2021; DOI: https://doi.org/10.5217/ir.2020.00146

Abstract PDF Supplementary Material PubReader ePub

Background/Aims
The residual risk of colectomy after infliximab salvage in steroid-refractory acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is required to inform the need for subsequent maintenance biologic therapy. The aim of this study was to determine the dynamic response of common serum biomarkers to infliximab salvage and assess their utility in predicting subsequent colectomy.
Methods
A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted on all patients who received infliximab salvage for steroid-refractory ASUC between January 1, 2010, and July 31, 2019. Biomarkers were assessed on admission and days 1 and 3 post infliximab, and included C-reactive protein (CRP)-albumin-ratio (CAR), CRP-lymphocyte-ratio (CLR), platelet-lymphocyte-ratio (PLR) and neutrophil-lymphocyte-ratio (NLR).
Results
Of 94 patients (median age, 35 years; 67% of male), 20% required colectomy at 12 months. Biomarkers on day 3 post-infliximab best differentiated nonresponders, who had higher CRP, lower albumin and lower lymphocyte count (each P< 0.05). Day 3 predictive performance (area under the curve) for 12-month colectomy was best for CAR (0.871) and CLR (0.874), which were similar to Lindgren (0.829; P> 0.05) but superior to Mayo (0.726), partial Mayo (0.719), PLR (0.719), Ho index (0.714), NLR (0.675), Travis score (0.657) and endoscopic Mayo (0.609) (each P< 0.05). A day 3 CAR cutoff of 0.47 mg/g had 79% sensitivity, 80% specificity, 94% negative predictive value (NPV) to predict colectomy; while a day 3 CLR cutoff of 6.0 mg/10⁹ had 84% sensitivity, 84% specificity, 96% NPV.
Conclusions
CAR and CLR measured on day 3 post infliximab salvage for steroid-refractory ASUC represent simple and routinely performed biomarkers that appear to be strong predictors of colectomy. Prospective studies are required to confirm the utility of these predictive scores.

Citations

Citations to this article as recorded by

Association between the C-reactive protein to albumin ratio and unplanned readmission in ulcerative colitis: insights from a cohort study
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Defining Moderate Disease Activity and Severity in Crohn’s Disease and Ulcerative Colitis
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Journal of Clinical Gastroenterology.2026;[Epub] CrossRef
Endoscopic severity and C-reactive protein predict initial and 12-month outcomes of second-line medical therapy in acute severe ulcerative colitis: the RESCUE-ASC study
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Frontline Gastroenterology.2025; : flgastro-2025-103253. CrossRef
Scoring indices for assessing endoscopic disease activity in acute severe ulcerative colitis: a systematic review
Hadar Meringer, Maia Kayal, Vipul Jairath, Anila Qasim, John K Macdonald, Yuhong Yuan, Christopher Ma, Jean-Frederic Colombel
Journal of Crohn’s and Colitis.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
Preoperative C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio for perioperative risk stratification in penetrating crohn’s disease: identification of a candidate rule-out threshold (a propensity score-matched cohort study)
Kinuko Nagayoshi, Yusuke Mizuuchi, Takaaki Fujimoto, Koji Tamura, Kohei Nakata, Kenoki Ohuchida, Masafumi Nakamura
Surgery Today.2025;[Epub] CrossRef
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Jared A Sninsky, Ana-Maria Staicu, Edward L Barnes
Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.2024; 30(10): 1911. CrossRef
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Defining management strategies for acute severe ulcerative colitis using predictive models: a simulation-modeling study
Danny Con, Peter De Cruz
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Predictors for colectomy in patients with acute severe ulcerative colitis: a systematic review and meta-analysis
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12,875 View
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